Let me make it clear here: Of course chance favors the prepared! Just as our brain does not easily make out probabilistic shades (it goes for the oversimplifying “all-or-none”), it was hard to explain that the idea here was that “it is more random than we think” rather than “it is all random. Here, first, the problem should be made clear. The combination of symptoms and degree of typicality varies from patient to patient. This line – in the real world one has to guess the problem more than the solution – is a reminder of a sentence that I heard and encountered many times: Patients do not read textbooks. In this book, considering that alternative outcomes could have taken place, that the world could have been different, is the core of the probabilistic thinking. Mother nature does not deliver problems in a textbook way (in the real world one has to guess the problem more than the solution). Outside of textbooks and casinos, probability almost never presents itself as a mathematical problem or a brain teaser. If the possible event had not come to pass, the participants erroneously recalled that they had always considered it unlikely. If an event had actually occurred, people exaggerated the probability that they had assigned to it earlier. After the visit, they asked the same people to recall the probability that they had originally assigned to the outcomes.
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